All papers from SAGE or other sources should be viewed in context: papers represent the authors’ best assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. The picture is developing rapidly and, as new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly. Therefore, some of the information in papers may have been superseded and the author’s opinions or conclusions may since have developed.
COVID-19 - Modelling Slides
Link to the slides to describe the course of the epidemic.
Scientific evidence for COVID certification
Modelling update and the impact of vaccination
The most common approach to mathematical modelling of the COVID epidemic is to use a compartmental model employing an SIR (susceptible-infectious-recovered) approach or a variation of it. Dozens of such models have been published and are in use throughout the world; there is no single standard model which everyone uses. Link to document available here.
Implementation of long-term baseline non-pharmaceutical interventions, including COVID certification (April 2021)
Transmission of delta
Impact of vaccination on Alpha and Delta variant
Vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 transmission to household contacts
Final Executive paper: E (21) 137 (C) Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) Regulations (Northern Ireland) 2021: Third Review of the Need for the Restrictions and Requirements
This paper reports on the third review of the need for the restrictions and requirements in the Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) Regulations (Northern Ireland) 2021 (“the 2021 Regulations”).
Non-pharmaceutical options to reducing the risk of Covid-19
Table from NI Executive paper on measures to reduce the risk of Covid-19 (24th September 2020)
Coronavirus weekly and monthly bulletins
The Public Health Agency (PHA) produces weekly and monthly bulletins on the COVID-19 pandemic in Northern Ireland.
COVID-19 mobility reports
These reports present an assessment of social distancing in Northern Ireland, showing how visits and length of stay at different places have changed on given days compared to a baseline.
COVID-19 infection survey
Findings and analyses from the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey in Northern Ireland.
Health and Social Care Chairs Forum - Weekly updates
Letters from the Minister to ALB DoH Chairs - weekly updates
DoH summary paper to NI Executive
- Summary of paper to Executive from Health Minister, reviewing the Covid-19 regulations - 15 March 2021
- Summary of Department of Health paper to NI Executive, 19 November, 2020
Evidence papers - February 2021
- ONS - Post-COVID Complications Following Hospitalisation (03 February 2021)
- SPI-M Strategies for gradually lifting NPIs in parallel to COVID-19 vaccine roll-out in the UK (03 February 2021)
- Warwick University - Relaxation of NPI as Vaccination Proceeds (02 February 2021)
- SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines and the Growing Threat of Viral Variants - 1 February 2021)
- ONS - Update on long COVID prevalence estimate (01 February 2021)
- UN- Building Resilient Societies After the COVID-19 Pandemic
Evidence papers - January 2021
- SAGE 78 minutes: Coronavirus (COVID-19) response, 28 January 2021
- Children’s Task and Finish Group: update to 17th December 2020 paper on children, schools and transmission (27 January 2021)
- COVID-19 Infection Survey - Results for England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland (27 January 2021)
- SPI-M-O: Consensus Statement on COVID-19 (27 January 2021)
- SPI-M-O: Statement on relaxation of NPIs and the re-opening of schools (27/01/21)
- Excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic among Californians 18–65 years of age, by occupational sector and occupation: March through October 2020 (22 January 2021)
- SAGE - International importation and border/travel measures (21 January 2021)
- NERVTAG variants update note (21 January 2021)
- SPI-M-O Consensus Statement to SAGE (20 January 2021)
- NERVTAG note on B.1.1.7 severity (20 January 2021)
- WEF - The Global Risks Report 2021 (19 January 2021)
- Lancet Article - When should the UK lift its lockdown? (19 January 2021)
- Lancet Article -Indirect acute effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on physical and mental health in the UK: a population-based study (18 January 2021)
- COVID-19 SAGE #76 minutes (14 January 2021)
- Reducing within- and between-household transmission in light of new variant SARS-CoV-2. (14 January 2021)
- Application of physical distancing and fabric face coverings in mitigating the B117 variant SARS-CoV-2 virus in public, workplace and community (13 January 2021)
- SARS-CoV-2 Immunity of Escape Variants (07 January 2021)
- Optimising the COVID-19 vaccination programme for maximum short-term impact - Short statement from the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) (6 January 2021)
Evidence papers - December 2020
- Factors Influencing COVID-19 Vaccine Uptake among Minority Ethnic Groups
- Investigation of novel SARS-CoV-2 variant - Variant of Concern (28 December 2020)
- DHSC ONS Direct and Indirect Health Impacts of COVID-19 on Excess Deaths and Morbidity (17 December 2020)
- SPI-B: Possible impact of the COVID-19 vaccination programme on adherence to rules and guidance about personal protective behaviours aimed at preventing spread of the virus (17 December 2020)
- Update on Evidence on Children and Schools (17 December 2020)
- Liverpool Covid SMART Pilot - Addressing SARS CoV 2 transmission and harms from Covid 19 restrictions, as one system (10 December 2020)
- TWEG - Environmental monitoring of viral presence, infectivity and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 (3 December 2020)
- TTI Modelling Group - Quarantine and Testing Strategies to Prevent Onwards Infection from Travellers Returning to the UK (1 December 2020)
Evidence papers - November 2020
- Factors contributing to risk of SARS-CoV2 transmission in various settings (26 November 2020)
- EMG and SPI-B Mitigating risks of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Associated with Household Social Interactions (26 November 2020)
- Factors Contributing to Risk of SARS-CoV2 Transmission in Various Settings (26 November 2020)
- Liverpool University: Innova Lateral Flow SARS-CoV-2 Antigen Test Accuracy in Liverpool Pilot (26 November 2020)
- SAGE: Housing, Household Transmission and Ethnicity (26 November 2020)
- The UK’s Four Nations’ Autumn Interventions (V2) (26 November 2020)
- SPI-M Mass Testing of the Whole Population (25 November 2020)
- SPI-M-O Consensus Statement on COVID-19 (25 November 2020)
- The UK’s Four Nations’ Autumn Interventions (19 November 2020)
- SPI-M Notes on Festive Period (19 November 2020)
- SAGE: Wastewater COVID-19 Monitoring in the UK (19 November 2020)
- NERVTAG Certifying COVID Immunity (19 November 2020)
- CMMID COVID-19 Working Group: Rapid testing strategies for traced contacts: comparing quarantine, quarantine and testing, and daily testing - (16 November 2020)
- SPI-B Testing for Initiation of Quarantine in Contacts (15 November 2020)
- NERVTAG – SARS-CoV-2 Variants that have been selected in Mink (12 November 2020)
- HAIRS Qualitative assessment of the risk that SARS-CoV-2 infection in UK captive Mustelinae populations presents to the UK human population (11 November 2020)
- SPI-M-O Statement on Tiers in England and Other Measures in the Devolved Nations (11 November 2020)
- SAGE: Key Evidence and Advice on Celebrations and Observances During COVID-19 (5 November 2020)
- Children’s Task and Finish Group: update to 4th Nov 2020 paper on children, schools and transmission (4 November 2020)
- Potential application of Air Cleaning devices and personal decontamination to manage transmission of COVID-19 (4 November 2020)
- SAGE #65 Minutes (04 November 2020)
- SAGE: Children’s Task and Finish Group: Update on Children, Schools and Transmission (04 November 2020)
- SPI-B and DfE(UK) - Benefits of remaining in education: Evidence and considerations (4 November 2020)
Evidence papers - October 2020
- SPI-M-O: Possible Scenarios for the Coming Months (29 October 2020)
- SPI-B Insights on Celebrations and Observances during COVID-19 (29 October 2020)
- Executive Summary – SPI-B Insights on Celebrations and Observances during COVID-19 (29 October 2020)
- Care Homes Scotland – Discharges from NHSScotland Hospitals to Care Homes (28 October 2020)
- Delayed adoption of corticosteroids as standard of care for hypoxic patients with COVID-19 in the UK (28 October 2020)
- COVID-19 - Scotland's Strategic Framework (24 October 2020)
- NERVTAG/EMG: Seasonality and its Impact on COVID-19 (22 October 2020)
- SAGE: The role of Community Champions networks to increase engagement in the context of COVID-19: Evidence and best practice (22 October 2020)
- SAGE: SARS-COV-2 Transmission Routes and Environments (22 October 2020)
- SPI-B: Increasing adherence to Covid-19 preventative behaviours among young people (22 October 2020)
- SPI-B: Positive strategies for sustaining adherence to infection control behaviours (22 October 2020)
- The impact of local and national restrictions in response to COVID-19 on social contacts in the UK: a longitudinal natural experiment - (19 October 2020)
- SPI-M-O: Summary of SAGE advice on segmentation, 15 October 2020
- Nature Article: What the data say about wearing face masks (8 October 2020)
- SPI-M-O Consensus Statement sent to SAGE (8 October 2020)
- Dynamic CO-CIN report to SAGE and NERVTAG (recent cases), 7 October 2020
- Dynamic CO-CIN report to SAGE and NERVTAG (all cases), 7 October 2020
- CO-CIN: COVID-19 - Time from symptom onset until death in UK hospitalised patients, 7 October 2020
Evidence papers - September 2020
- NERVTAG: Is there evidence for genetic change in SARS-CoV-2 and if so, do mutations affect virus phenotype? - 30 September 2020
- EMG: Role of ventilation in controlling SARS-CoV-2 transmission, 30 September 2020
- SPI-M Medium Term Projections - (29 September 2020)
- Dynamic CO-CIN report to SAGE and NERVTAG (all cases) - 29 September 2020
- Dynamic CO-CIN report to SAGE and NERVTAG (recent cases), 29 September 2020
- Jama Network: Preventing and Responding to COVID-19
on College Campuses (28 September 2020) - GenOMICC: Briefing on progress with human genomics in COVID-19, 25 September 2020
- GSK: Evaluation of excess mortality in European all-cause mortality data, 25 September 2020
- Briefing on progress with human genomics in COVID 19 (25 September 2020)
- Update paper on UK position in care homes (24 September 2020)
- Impact on influenza infection in patients who also have COVID-19 (23rd September 20)
- Drivers of the higher COVID-19 incidence, morbidity and mortality among minority ethnic groups (23rd September 20)
- Evidence summary of impacts to date of public health communications to minority ethnic groups and related challenges, 23 September 2020
- Summary of effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (21st September 2020)
- Table showing the impact of various non-pharmaceutical interventions (21st September 2020)
- CO-CIN: COVID-19 inpatient demographics after 1 August 2020 compared with whole CO-CIN cohort, 16 September 2020
- The impact of financial and other targeted support on rates of self-isolation or quarantine - 16 September 2020
- Duration of wearing of face coverings, 15 September 2020
- Dynamic CO-CIN report - 14 September 2020
- Role of housing in transmission (10 September 2020)
- Role of housing in transmission – evidence review (10 September 2020)
- Rapid review of the asymptomatic proportion of PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections in community settings, 9 September 2020
- SPI-M-O: Statement on population case detection, 9 September 2020
- Processing methods to facilitate the re-use of personal protective equipment (PPE), 8 September 2020
- Principles for Managing SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Associated with Higher Education (3 September 2020)
- Principles for Managing SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Associated with Further Education (3 September 2020)
- COG-UK: Summary report of COVID-19 reinfection, 3 September 2020
- Adherence to the test, trace and isolate system: results from a time series of 21 nationally representative surveys in the UK, 3 September 2020
- Update on immunity to SARS-CoV-2, 2 September 2020
- Community case definitions for COVID-19, 2 September 2020
Evidence papers - August 2020
- Consensus statement on mass testing for SARS-CoV-2, 27 August 2020
- Dynamic CO-CIN report to SAGE and NERVTAG, 26 August 2020
- BMJ - Community engagement for COVID-19 prevention and control: a rapid evidence synthesis (24 August 2020)
- Public Health England: Prospective active national surveillance of preschools and primary schools for SARS-CoV-2 infection and transmission, 21 August 2020
- PHE: SARS-CoV2 susceptibility and transmission risk in children: an overview of current evidence from PHE surveillance work, 19 August 2020
- SPI-B: Consensus statement on the reopening of large events and venues, 19 August 2020
- SPI-M-O: Consensus statement on events and gatherings, 19 August 2020
- PHE/EMG: Aerosol and droplet generation from singing, wind instruments and performance activities, 13 August 2020
- SPI-M-O: Local interventions and spatial scales, 6 August 2020
- CO-CIN: outcomes of COVID-19 related hospitalisation among people with HIV, 6 August 2020
- ONS: Air pollution and COVID-19 mortality rates in England, 6 August 2020
- Dynamic CO-CIN report to SAGE and NERVTAG, 5 August 2020
- Protecting high risk individuals as an approach to controlling COVID-19 outbreaks, 4 August 2020
Evidence papers - July 2020
- SPI-B: Areas of intervention (‘local lockdown’) measures to control outbreaks of COVID-19 during the national release phase, 30 July 2020
- SPI-B: Consensus statement on local interventions, 29 July 2020
- Dynamic CO-CIN report to SAGE and NERVTAG, 23 July 2020
- Dynamic CO-CIN report to SAGE and NERVTAG, 23 July 2020
- NERVTAG/EMG: Role of aerosol transmission in COVID-19, 22 July 2020
- SPI-B: Consensus on BAME communication, 22 July 2020
- SPI-M-O: Statement on population segmentation by age group, 22 July 2020
- EMG: Measurement of effectiveness of risk mitigation measures in reducing transmission, 16 July 2020
- NERVTAG: Respiratory viral infections, their interactions with SARS-CoV-2 and implications for a winter resurgence of COVID-19, 16 July 2020
- NERVTAG: Assessment of transmission of COVID-19 through musical events, 16 July 2020
- DHSC/ONS/GAD/HO: Direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19 on excess deaths and morbidity, 15 July 2020
- SPI-M-O: Statement on population segmentation, 15 July 2020
- EMG: COVID-19 - Theatres, concert halls and other performance spaces, 12 July 2020
- DfE: COVID-19 - further and higher education, 9 July 2020
- Risks associated with the reopening of education settings in September - 8 July 2020
- Preparing for a challenging winter 2020/21 - 7 July 2020
- Hand hygiene to limit SARS-CoV-2 transmission - 2 July 2020
- Tests for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, 2 July 2020
- SPI-B: Public disorder and public health - contemporary threats and risks, 2 July 2020