COVID-19 - Scientific Evidence

All papers from SAGE or other sources should be viewed in context: papers represent the authors’ best assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. The picture is developing rapidly and, as new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly. Therefore, some of the information in papers may have been superseded and the author’s opinions or conclusions may since have developed.

COVID-19 - Modelling Slides 

Link to the slides  to describe the course of the epidemic.

Scientific evidence for COVID certification

Modelling update and the impact of vaccination

The most common approach to mathematical modelling of the COVID epidemic is to use a compartmental model employing an SIR (susceptible-infectious-recovered) approach or a variation of it. Dozens of such models have been published and are in use throughout the world; there is no single standard model which everyone uses. Link to document available here.

Implementation of long-term baseline non-pharmaceutical interventions, including COVID certification (April 2021) 

Transmission of delta

Impact of vaccination on Alpha and Delta variant

Vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 transmission to household contacts

Final Executive paper: E (21) 137 (C) Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) Regulations (Northern Ireland) 2021: Third Review of the Need for the Restrictions and Requirements

This paper reports on the third review of the need for the restrictions and requirements in the Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) Regulations (Northern Ireland) 2021 (“the 2021 Regulations”).

Non-pharmaceutical options to reducing the risk of Covid-19

Table from NI Executive paper on measures to reduce the risk of Covid-19 (24th September 2020)

Coronavirus weekly and monthly bulletins

The Public Health Agency (PHA) produces weekly and monthly bulletins on the COVID-19 pandemic in Northern Ireland.

COVID-19 mobility reports

These reports present an assessment of social distancing in Northern Ireland, showing how visits and length of stay at different places have changed on given days compared to a baseline.

COVID-19 infection survey

Findings and analyses from the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey in Northern Ireland.

Health and Social Care Chairs Forum - Weekly updates

Letters from the Minister to ALB DoH Chairs - weekly updates

DoH summary paper to NI Executive

Evidence papers - February 2021

Evidence papers - January 2021

Evidence papers - December 2020

Evidence papers - November 2020

Evidence papers - October 2020

Evidence papers - September 2020

Evidence papers - August 2020

Evidence papers - July 2020


Evidence papers - June 2020

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