Current R Number estimate - 20 August
Date published:
The Department of Health continues to publish the Covid-19 reproduction number on a weekly basis.
The current estimate of R is 1.0 – 1.6
This means R is likely to be around 1.3 at present.
R represents the number of individuals who, on average, will be infected by a single person with the infection. R does not have a fixed value but varies with time, and is likely to be different every day.
Whenever R is above 1, the epidemic is increasing. The R number should not be viewed in isolation and must be considered alongside other indicators. At this stage the number of positive tests per day is likely to be a more important parameter.
The 7 day rolling average for new cases has increased and is now at over 40 per day. There is also likely to be a more widespread increase in community transmission which is a matter of significant concern. Hospital admissions are increasing very slowly but are still at a low level. However, they are likely to rise further if cases continue to do so.
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