Current R Number estimate

Date published: 17 September 2020

The current estimate of R is around 1.2

• Average number of new positive tests per day last 7 days: 90.3
• 7 day incidence based on new positive tests: 33.3 / 100k
• 14 day incidence based on new positive tests: 64.9 / 100k
• 7 day average of total tests (pillar 1 and 2) which are positive – 1.81%
• First COVID +ve hospital admission in last week – 21
• 7 day average number COVID occupied hospital beds – 21.1

Commenting on the figures the Chief Scientific Adviser Professor Ian Young said: “Over the last week, we have seen a plateauing in cases and an increase in hospital admissions with the 7 day average number of COVID occupied beds increasing from 16.4 to 21.1 and the First COVID +ve hospital admission number in the last week increasing from 7 to 21. The proportion of cases in individuals aged >60 yrs has risen from under 10% to just under 16%, but remains significantly below wave 1 of the epidemic where around 50% of cases were in this age group. The current increase in cases in younger people is likely to lead to increasing cases in the over sixties with resulting pressure on the hospital system and, tragically, increasing deaths.

“The 14 day cases per 100k have also increased and remain higher than UK and ROI, though testing is also higher in NI. It is obvious from these figures that we are still seeing an increase in COVID-19 across Northern Ireland and we must all play our part in trying to stem this tide, help protect ourselves and those around us, in particular the most vulnerable."