Current estimate of R Number

Date published: 09 July 2020

The Department of Health has published the current Covid-19 reproduction number.

The current estimate of R is 0.5 – 1.0.  

It should be noted, however, that as the number of new cases is low and in the presence of a robust testing programme and test/trace/protect strategy R is no longer regarded as the most important indicator for the purposes of policy decisions. The number of positive tests per day is likely to be a more important parameter in the context of planning.

At present R will show a high degree of volatility and may be heavily influenced by small changes in numbers, and therefore may give a misleading impression of the state of the epidemic.

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