Current R Number estimate – 3 September 2020

Date published: 3 September 2020

The current estimate of R is 1.1 - 1.6

• Average number of new positive tests per day last 7 days - 66.3
• 7 day incidence based on new positive tests - 24.4 / 100k population
• 14 day incidence based on new positive tests - 45.3 / 100k population
• 7 day average of total tests (pillar 1 and 2) which are positive - 1.45%
• First COVID +ve hospital admission in last week - 17
• 7 day average number COVID occupied hospital beds - 21.0

The above indicators generally show a further increase in transmission in the last week. The 7 day rolling average for new cases has increased as has test positivity. Main concerns are currently in relation to Armagh City, Banbridge and Craigavon (partly explained by a hospital cluster) and Belfast, where no predominant cluster has been identified.

14 day cases per 100k remain higher than the UK as a whole and ROI. This is likely to be partly explainable by increased testing in the context of the Test / Trace / Protect service. However, there is also likely to be a more widespread increase in community transmission which is a matter of significant concern.

At present around 10% of identified cases are in the over 60’s, whereas at the peak of the epidemic 40 – 50% of identified cases were in this age group. As a result, hospital admissions are increasing very slowly but are still at a low level in comparison to the first wave when there was a comparable number of cases.

The view from both the Modelling Group and the Strategic Intelligence Group is that they will inevitably rise if cases continue to do so.