Current R Number estimate - 27 August 2020
Date published:
The Department of Health continues to publish the Covid-19 reproduction number on a weekly basis.
The current estimate of R is 1.0 - 1.6
- Average number of new positive tests per day last 7 days - 56.3
- 7 day incidence based on new positive tests - 20.7 / 100k population
- 14 day incidence based on new positive tests - 36.9 / 100k population
- 7 day average of total tests (pillar 1 and 2) which are positive - 1.34%
- First COVID +ve hospital admission in last week - 14
- 7 day average number COVID occupied hospital beds - 17.0
The above indicators generally show a further increase in transmission in the last week. The 7 day rolling average for new cases has increased as has test positivity, though both are likely to be strongly influenced by a meat factory outbreak in Mid and East Antrim.
14 day cases per 100k remain higher than the UK as a whole and ROI. This is likely to be partly explainable by increased testing in the context of the Test / Trace / Protect service. However, there is also likely to be a more widespread increase in community transmission which is a matter of significant concern.
Hospital admissions are increasing very slowly but are still at a low level in comparison to the first wave when there was a comparable number of cases.
The view from both the Modelling Group and the Strategic Intelligence Group is that they will inevitably rise if cases continue to do so.
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