Current estimate of R Number

Date published: 16 July 2020

The Department of Health continues to publish the Covid-19 reproduction number on a weekly basis.

The current estimate of R is 0.5 – 1.0. 

R represents the number of individuals who, on average, will be infected by a single person with the infection.  R does not have a fixed value but varies with time, and is likely to be different every day.

When community transmission of the virus is very low, R will no longer be the most important number for the purpose of policy decisions.

In particular, once the number of new cases is sufficiently low in the context of a robust testing programme and test/trace/protect strategy, the number of positive tests per day is likely to be a more important parameter.

At present, R will show a high degree of volatility and be heavily influenced by small local clusters, and is therefore not the key indicator for policy decisions.

Notes to editors: 

  1. For media enquiries please contact DoH Press Office by email: pressoffice@health-ni.gov.uk
  2. Follow us on twitter @healthdpt.
  3. The Executive Information Service operates an out of hours service for media enquiries between 1800hrs and 0800hrs Monday to Friday and at weekends and public holidays. The duty press officer can be contacted on 028 9037 8110.

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